The Federal Reserve meet on September 21 and short term interest rate markets are currently pricing in a 92% chance of a 75bps rate hike. Before they meet there are two key data points and a speech from Powell on Thursday this week at 1410 UK time.

At the Jackson Hole Symposium Powell mentioned that jobs and inflation data would be important going forward for the pace of US interest rates as the Fed are now on a data dependent path.

So, on Tuesday 8th September we have the US ISM services PMI print and then on Tuesday September 13 we have the US core inflation print.

If we see a miss in both of these prints it will likely increase expectation that the Fed will only hike by 50bps and that could see the DXY weaken into the next FOMC meeting.

Look at the period of weakness that is ahead in the Dollar Index .

Remember, don’t just trade it, Seasonax it !