The Nikkei has a very strong seasonal pattern towards the end of November. The reason for this pattern is due to some tax-loss selling behaviour that repeats itself time and time again, resulting in gains in the Nikkei. Also around the time of the term of the month, the Nikkei seems quite a decent seasonal pattern that traders need to be aware of.
Over the last 58 years, the Nikkei has gained an average of 1.28% between the 22nd of November and the 3rd of December. The maximum game has been a stunning 6.13%, but the maximum loss is a significant 5.86%. So, with a seasonal pattern above 77%, is this a seasonal pattern worth looking out for this year?
Major Trade Risks:
The major trade risk here is that tax loss selling behaviour may not have the same impact on the Nikkei as in previous years.
Remember don’t just trade it, Seasonax it!