The Federal Reserve is on the brink of initiating a rate-cutting cycle, with short-term interest rate (STIR) markets pricing in four full rate cuts by year-end. For this to unfold, one of the remaining three Fed meetings must deliver a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut. As of now, STIR markets assign a 36% probability that the September 18 meeting will feature a 50bps cut.

The latest Non-Farm Payroll report on September 6, while initially stirring the market, did not significantly alter the probability of a 50bps cut once the dust settled. That said, the upcoming Consumer Price Index report may hold the key. Should we witness notably weak CPI data, the USD could weaken, and stocks might benefit, as this would leave the door open for the anticipated 50bps rate cut.

Historically, the S&P500 has shown strong performance around the CPI release, with a median return of +0.88% and a total profit of +1,317 points across 60 events. This five-day period around the CPI event has been profitable 71.67% of the time, showcasing an annualized return of +30.93%. Gains have been particularly robust, with a maximum profit of +10.97% and a maximum rise of +1.86%, indicating the potential for a positive stock reaction heading into the CPI event if an underperformance is expected.

So, will the US CPI print lift the S&P500?  The next major support level for the S&P500 sits along the bottom of the second trend line around the 5300 region

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Trade risks

• The major risk lies in inflation surprising to the upside, which could reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative regarding interest rates and dampen the market’s rate cut hopes.

Remember, don’t just trade it Seasonax It!