This week’s US labour report will be in key focus as investors seek to evaluate the Fed’s communication on rates. The Fed have signaled two rate cuts to come this year, and that has been supporting the USD higher over the last few weeks. So, on Friday November 01 a surprise in the jobs report could move the USD significantly. This is where Seasonax’s event feature is so useful in assessing what kind of moves the dollar could see on a surprise print. Here is a look at the Dollar index and the price movement two days after the NFP release. The win rate, which measures how often the dollar rises over these events, is 56.90%. This indicates that the DXY has outperformed in more than half of the periods leading up to and following the NFP report. The average profit over these events is +4.36 points, with a maximum profit of +0.99%. Meanwhile, the losses average -0.31%, with the maximum loss at -1.12%. This suggests that while gains tend to be higher, losses are typically smaller in magnitude.
Now, a big miss in the date OR a big beat in the data should result in a volatile move as investors will use it as a proxy for the Fed’s next move. A strong print should send the USD higher, but a weak print will have USD sellers rushing back in as deeper rate cuts from the Fed will be expected.
The other aspect of the Seasonax event feature to be aware of is that you can see each individual release reaction. By seeing this you can then add in additional calendar studies to see which releases had prints above or below the market’s expectations. That way you can then start to assess what maximum moves we are likely rot get on a surprise print. This helps with targets, stop loss settings, and profit targets. Look at the data below for a sample and notice the helpful max rise and max drop columns for each individual release.
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Historical performance can help traders gauge the market reaction to NFP releases, but it is important to note the variability in profit percentages and price movements.
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