The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has provisionally approved the £15 billion ($19.5 billion) merger between Vodafone Group Plc and Three, contingent on their commitment to major mobile network investments across the UK. To prevent customer price hikes, the CMA is recommending additional protections and will announce a final decision by December 7. This merger would unite the smallest of the UK’s four mobile operators and then create the largest by revenue and potentially addressing the UK’s lagging mobile service quality compared to other European countries. Vodafone and Three plan to invest £11 billion in infrastructure improvements if approved, and they are open to monitoring from the UK’s communications regulator to ensure compliance. The companies emphasize that this merger offers a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to advance the UK’s digital infrastructure.

Seasonally, Vodafone has a strong pattern between November 12 and December 08. The average return has been 2.66% with a 72% winning trade percentage over the last 25 years. The largest gains have been in double figures with the largest loss at 11.23%. Although the last two years has seen the pattern return a negative result will news of this merger left the share price into the UK’s CMA December 07 decision?

Technically, price has been moving lower over the last few years, but there is major support from 1998 marked out at 55 on the chart below. Is this now time for Vodafone’s trend to change on these new merger hopes?

Sign up here for thousands more seasonal insights waiting to be revealed!

Trade risks
While the seasonal outlook is favourable, risks remain. The UK CMA may not authorise the merger and the seasonal pattern may disappoint for a their year in a row.

Don’t Just Trade It – Seasonax It!