The US labor market shows signs of broader weakness beyond temporary factors like strikes and hurricanes. October’s non-farm payrolls missed expectations according to ING, with state data revealing 29 states saw job declines, signaling a broader slowdown. So, it is unlikely that the hurricane and strikes from Boeing impacted all 29 states. Adjusting for temporary disruptions, “true” payroll growth for November is expected to remain weak, likely under 100k. Combined with downward payroll revisions for prior months, this confirms cooling economic momentum. This aligns with the Fed’s data-driven approach, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in December to sustain economic stability. So, if we see a big surprise on the release for this week’s NFP, below market expectations, watch out for USD selling and EURUSD upside.  This is where Seasonax is so helpful as the event feature gives us a good idea of what maximum gains to look for.

In the data above there are three prints that stand out where the EURUSD has had outsized gains. That was in 01 Nov 2024 (+0.41%), Aug 02 (1.24%) and 06 Mar 2020 (+0.89%). The key thing to note is that two of those three gains have been recent, this year. Also, if we see a big miss, a gain in the EURUSD of anything over 0.50% is worth taking profit on. So, in this way, Seasonax’s event feature can help you set objective targets and expectations ahead of big data points for intraday trading!

Technically, the major support and resistance levels for the EURUSD on the daily chart are set below at 1.0650 and 1.0835 above price.

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Trade risks
The main risk is from the fact that seasonal patterns, no matter how strong, do not necessarily repeat themselves each and every year. 

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