Frequently Asked Questions

Seasonality in general

What is seasonality?
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to move in predictable ways at the same time each year. It’s an independent edge: it’s based on the calendar rather than price action, so it doesn’t correlate with standard indicators. That adds genuine value to your analysis. Not just more of what you already have.
A few things to keep in mind: individual years can vary, extreme events can distort patterns and seasonality is specific to each market and time window. Use it as 1 strong input in your decision-making, not a standalone system.
What is a seasonal pattern?
A seasonal pattern is a recurring trading opportunity with above-average returns. It shows up at roughly the same time each year, backed by statistical data.
What causes specific seasonal patterns?
Several well-known forces drive them: harvest seasons and weather cycles, year-end interest payments that flow into markets, investor sentiment around holidays, quarterly reporting periods, tax deadlines and fund inflow cycles.

Often you can identify the reason behind a pattern. Sometimes you can’t. Either way, the data shows the pattern regardless.
How reliable are seasonal patterns?
Patterns backed by solid statistics and a clear underlying cause tend to be the most reliable. The stronger the data and the more identifiable the reason, the higher the probability it repeats.
What are the causes of seasonal trends?
Real forces drive these patterns. Stock funds push prices higher at year-end to improve results. December bond coupon payments flow partly into stocks. Holiday sentiment lifts markets. And every market has its own seasonal logic: harvest cycles in agriculture, interest rate cycles in bonds, inventory cycles in energy.

• The most common drivers:
• Year-end and seasonal payments
• Investor sentiment around holidays and year-end
• Quarterly and annual reporting cycles
• Harvest seasons
• Heating season in energy markets
What about non-seasonal price movements?
Seasonal charts average past price movements. A major outlier, like the 1987 crash, can distort the pattern more than a typical year would. Sometimes moves cluster at the same time by coincidence, not because of a real seasonal trend.

That’s why it’s worth reviewing the underlying data, not just the chart shape.
Are there exceptions to seasonal patterns?
Yes. Seasonality works statistically, across many years. In any given year, fundamental, political or psychological factors can override the seasonal trend. Even the most reliable patterns have exceptions.

Win rates tell you a lot here: an 80% win rate still means the pattern runs the other way 2 out of every 10 years. Factor that in.
Which investment horizon can I apply?
Seasonality works best as an intermediate-term signal. Short-term traders can use it to fine-tune entries. Long-term investors can use it to time purchases better. For example, shifting a planned stock buy from August to November, when the seasonal tailwind is typically stronger.

Seasonax features and functionality

What is Seasonax?
Seasonax helps you find and act on seasonal price patterns across 25,000+ instruments. It’s built on algorithms developed by Dimitri Speck, the leading researcher in seasonal analysis, and runs on any device, no setup needed.
How can I find profitable seasonal patterns?
There are 2 ways. Open any instrument and let our pattern finder surface the strongest patterns automatically. Or use the Seasonality Screener to scan entire markets, like the S&P 500 or commodities, and find the best opportunities across thousands of assets at once.
What is a detrended chart?
A detrended chart removes the long-term price trend so you can see seasonal patterns more clearly. It’s especially useful for stocks that have been rising steadily for years: the long-term trend can mask weaker seasonal windows. Remove it and you’ll immediately see when the seasonal momentum is against you.
How does the Seasonax algorithm work?
Seasonal price trends are shown by averaging the price movements of previous years. The mathematical operations performed by our unique algorithm deliver precise results.
Does Seasonax offer intraday-analysis?
The web app uses end-of-day data. If you’re on Bloomberg or Refinitiv EIKON, you get intraday data through our platform integrations, and both come with a free trial.
• Refinitiv EIKON: search Seasonax in the app library
• Bloomberg Terminal: type APP SEASONS GO
What does Seasonax offer for short trades?
All pattern calculations are based on long positions, but a pattern where prices consistently fall is just as tradeable. Use Seasonax to spot those windows, then trade the short side. See our guide on trading both directions with seasonality.
What data are the seasonal charts based on?
We use end-of-day adjusted close prices. Stock splits and dividends are already factored in, so you’re working with clean, accurate data every time.
What makes Seasonax better than other seasonality applications?
Most seasonality tools use simplified calculations that produce unreliable results. Seasonax is built on Dimitri Speck’s algorithms, which solved the key accuracy problems in seasonal analysis. You get precise return figures, a 25,000+ instrument universe and a screener that finds patterns in seconds.

Seasonax subscriptions and plans

You’re advertising a free trial. How does it work?
Every new user gets 30 days of full Professional access. No payment details needed. At the end of the trial, choose a plan or walk away. No catches.
What’s the main difference between Basic and Professional?
Professional gives you the full Seasonality Screener across all markets. Basic covers a limited selection. You also get the comparison feature: compare any instrument’s seasonal trend against a specific year or another asset. And you can upload your own custom data. Learn more about our features.
I want to switch plans. Can I do it at any time?
Yes, switch anytime. It takes effect immediately. There’s no trial period once you already have a subscription. Any unused time from your current plan is credited to your next invoice.
I want to cancel. Can I do it at any time?
Yes. Your subscription stays active until the end of the current billing period. Cancel an annual plan 3 months before renewal and you keep access until it expires. If you missed the renewal and want to cancel right after, reach out and we’ll sort it out.
My credit card expired and I keep getting failed payment notifications.
Those come directly from Stripe, our payment provider, and include a link to update your card. Click it and add your new details. That’s all you need to do.
I don’t want to pay by credit or debit card. Are there other options?
We’re limited to the payment methods Stripe supports. If a card doesn’t work for you, reach out and we’ll find another option.
Do I need to subscribe to an additional plan to use the Seasonality Screener?
No. The Screener is included in Seasonax Professional at no extra cost. Seasonax Basic subscribers can access it too, but with a smaller selection of markets.

Support

Do you have any questions or suggestions? We’d love to hear them. Just drop us a line and we’ll get back to you as soon as possible.