Stock markets often exhibit a phenomenon known as the "turn of the month effect," where returns tend to be higher around the turn of the month compared to other periods. The first few days of the third quarter (Q3) often see increased market activity too.
Seasonax’s screener function is great for highlighting interesting seasonal patterns ahead. By screening the Dow Jones Industrial Average from June 17 over the next 31-60 days we can see that there are number of stocks returned.
GameStop shares have hit the headlines again as GameStop options had their most active session since 2021 on Friday of last week. The shares saw heavy volatility last week as the famous meme stock influencer, Keith Gill, released an enigmatic post on twitter.
On Wednesday the US CPI data is released. The EURUSD has been weighed down this week on the strong NFP print from Friday, with the headline jobs number coming in above the 12 month average, and the weekend results from the European Parliamentary elections.
The Nasdaq is know for its sensitivity to Fed interest rates. The growth orientated stocks in the Nasdaq often rely heavily on borrowing to finance their operations and higher interest rates can make their margins tighter.
On Friday the latest jobs data will be released for the US and it will be in major focus. Remember, the Fed has a twin mandate: to achieve maximum employment and keep prices stable. So, with inflation moving in the right direction with the latest PCE print.
The DXY has a period of seasonal weakness ahead and the recent inflation data out of the US has been supportive for those looking for dollar weakness. The latest US PCE print came in fractionally lower than expectations for the month over month reading at 0.2% vs 0.3% expected.
The reason is that the meeting also includes news that production will be gradually increased from Oct 2024 (depending on market conditions). So, the two way news is mirrored by the two way seasonal pattern for oil.
The EURUSD for example has an interesting event pattern around the start of June, which is also around the release of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE print at 13:30 UK time on Friday May 31.
Silver has been one of the best performing commodities this year gaining over 40% since the start of the year. It has also been reported across financial media and trending on twitter over the last few days as buyers have increased in confidence.
