The seasonals are saying that gold could be about to break its all-time high. The average return in gold between the 13th of December and February the 20th is over 4%. If the seasonal pattern repeats this year, according to its average, that will take gold to fresh all time new highs!
Markets have been happy to sell the dollar recently on the narrative that the US is seeing slowing economic data, inflation is falling, and the prospect of federal reserve interest rate cuts are growing ever closer. This dollar weakness is expected to continue as long as the Federal reserve doesn’t signal any more rate hikes.
Speculation is growing that the US economy is heading for a soft landing. If this is the case, then the recent strong run in technology stocks could carry on. Using the season axis filter option we can filter the strongest seasonal patterns of the individual shares making up the NASDAQ 100.
Oil markets have been pushed and pulled around in recent days and weeks on the worries about supply with the Israel Hamas conflict and most recently on concerns regarding the collaboration of production levels within the OPEC+ group. The latest concern is Nigeria and Angola, having to accept a new baseline that reflects their actual production capabilities.
The Bank of Japan is expected to exit it’s negative interest rate policy and start hiking rates around spring 2024. The Swiss National Bank is expected, by short term interest rate markets, to stop hiking rates with its inflation at 1.7%.
When the US dollar falls and real yields drop too, that tends to be a great environment for gold buying. The last few weeks have seen significant falls in the dollar on expectations that the Federal Reserve has reached the peak in interest rates.
Nvidia’s shares have risen over 230% since the start of the year and their earnings are due out after the close on Tuesday. From a seasonal perspective there is a very strong upside bias in Nvidia, but look at the volatility that there has been too!
Bloomberg reported yesterday that Nvidia could be flashing signs of overheating. The reason that Bloomberg considers Nvidia to be overbought was based on the fact that the shares have climbed over 230% since the start of the year, and they are currently in overbought territory on the RSI index. So does this mean Nvidia is due for a pullback?
Yesterday we saw a big miss in the US CPI print which allowed the S&P 500 to move significantly higher on ‘peak Fed narrative’ hopes. Seasonax’s event feature allowed us to expect upside in the S&P 500 in the event of a miss and the same feature leads us to expect potential for dip buying in the S&P 500 today.
On November 14, US CPI inflation data is coming out and it's widely anticipated to come in lower than the prior reading with the headline at 3.3% and the core in line with the prior reading of 4.1% year-on-year now there is intense focus on US inflation because markets are trying to assess whether the Federal reserve has indeed finished hiking interest rates if they have finished hiking interest rates that could signal another leg higher in US equities as well as the beginning of a down trend for the heavily bought US dollar.
