Historical trends suggest that EUR/USD tends to strengthen between February 12 and March 17, posting an average return of +0.70% with a 75% win rate. As the Federal Reserve and ECB navigate economic uncertainty, traders are watching for key macro catalysts.
As the February 12 CPI release approaches, traders brace for volatility in the Nasdaq 100. With inflation expectations rising and Fed Chair Powell set to speak, the index faces a pivotal moment. However, historical seasonality tells a different story—showing an 87.69% annualized return and a 65% win rate around CPI events.
Germany’s DAX index has dropped amid renewed trade tensions, particularly in the auto sector. However, history suggests that March through June is a seasonally strong period, with an average gain of +6.57% and a 90% win rate.
The Nasdaq 100 exhibits a bearish seasonal trend around Nonfarm Payroll releases, with a -5.02% annualized return and high volatility. Losses tend to outweigh gains, making risk management crucial.
J Sainsbury Plc faces mounting cost pressures due to rising wages and tax increases. The company has responded with job cuts and cost-saving measures, but its seasonal weakness from February 2 to March 14 suggests further downside risk.
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc has historically delivered strong seasonal gains from February 2 to March 8, with an annualized return of +173.69% and a 70% win rate. This year, a new £9 billion UK defense contract could further fuel the stock’s momentum.
For the Fed’s meeting on Jan 29th the expectation from analysts and STIR markets is that the Fed will keep rates steady at 4.375% with it being seen as a 100% chance of an ‘on hold’ decision. Interestingly, we can see that over the last 10 years when the Fed has kept rates on hold the EURUSD has tended to upside gains with a 62.96% win percentage and the maximum gain being over 1%.
The FTSE 100 recently surged to a record high of 8,505.22, supported by factors like a weaker British pound, robust corporate buyback programs, and strong sectoral performance. Historical seasonal patterns suggest a potential for further gains, with an average return of +1.68% between January 31 and February 27 and an 80% win rate over the past decade.
Discover the seasonal strength in consumer discretionary stocks, a trend historically prominent from late January to April. With potential pro-growth policies under President Trump and favorable economic indicators like steady inflation and robust job growth, this could be an opportune moment to capitalize.
President Trump’s second term brings significant implications for the U.S. dollar (USD), driven by his fiscal and trade policies. Seasonal analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) shows a reliable upward trend from February 1st to March 15th, with an average gain of +1.55% and a 90% success rate. This historical strength, paired with supportive technical factors, presents a compelling opportunity for traders.
