Giles Coghlan

As a professional market analyst and commentator, Giles' goal is simple: to explain the current reason markets are moving the way they are so you that can make better trading decisions right now. His cutting-edge analysis has been featured in Reuters, Business Insider, WSJ, Financial Times Adviser, NBC, LBC Radio, CoinTelegraph, Guardian Observer, National Express, and numerous other prestigious financial outlets.

Articles: 494

Why SP500 Traders Always Remember September!

The S&P 500 tends to underperform in September, showing negative returns and higher risk metrics. It tends to be a weak month for returns and over the last 10 years it has been the weakest month. The selected pattern (1st September to 30th September) shows a significant negative annualized return of -23.24%.In contrast

September 5, 2024

Will the S&P500 run up into Friday’s NFP?

Will the S&P500 run up higher into the NFP jobs print on Friday? From a seasonal perspective this is the pattern. Using Seasonax’s risk event feature we can see the following. The strategy shows a strong +48.89% annualized return with…

September 3, 2024

Bailey to buckle the FTSE 100’s recent run?

The weakest month of the year for the FTSE 100 is September. From 1 September - 30 September, over the last 25 years the pattern shows a significant negative annualized return of -19.8%. Despite the negative trend, there is still a 48% win rate, indicating nearly half of the September months recorded gains.

August 30, 2024

Nvidia: misplaced enthusiasm?

As we approach Nvidia Corp.'s highly anticipated earnings report (Wednesday Aug 28), market watchers are bracing for another standout performance. The consensus among analysts points to a significant beat, with expectations running so high that it is thought Nvidia may raise its profit outlook.

August 29, 2024

Is the EURUSD heading for a retracement after it’s recent run higher?

The seasonal chart for the EURUSD is painting a picture of EURUSD downside ahead, with some outsized falls seasonally recorded in the pair. Over the last 24 years the pair has had falls over 3% three times. The largest fall…

August 27, 2024

Is gold’s run coming to an end in September?

The seasonal chart for gold, covering a 15-year period from August 2009 to August 2024, highlights a notable pattern of weakness in gold from early September to early October. This period historically correlates with a downturn, with a marked annualised return of -30.42% during this window.

August 23, 2024

Tencent Rides the Wave of Black Myth: Wukong. More Success Ahead Amid a Bullish Seasonal Window?

Tencent is riding high following the blockbuster release of Black Myth: Wukong, a game that has taken the global gaming community by storm. As investor enthusiasm grows, Tencent is also entering one of its strongest seasonal periods.

August 21, 2024

Remember the ‘first day of the month effect’

The "first day of the month" effect in the S&P 500 refers to the observed tendency for stock returns to be higher on the first trading day of the month compared to other days. This phenomenon has been seen in various financial markets and is of particular interest to traders.

August 20, 2024

Will Seasonal Weakness Overshadow Taiwan Semiconductor’s Strong July Performance?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) is coming off a stellar performance in July, with revenue surging by 45%, reaching NT$256.95 billion ($7.9 billion). This impressive growth, driven by strong demand for artificial intelligence chips, especially from major clients like Nvidia Corp.

August 13, 2024

Will August see the AUDJPY pair fall?

Their is a strong seasonal bias for AUDJPY weakness during August. In the last 24 years you can see that the month of August is at the standout month of seasonal weakness with nearly 2% average falls. See the monthly ‘Average return by month’ bar chart below.

August 7, 2024