Giles Coghlan

As a professional market analyst and commentator, Giles' goal is simple: to explain the current reason markets are moving the way they are so you that can make better trading decisions right now. His cutting-edge analysis has been featured in Reuters, Business Insider, WSJ, Financial Times Adviser, NBC, LBC Radio, CoinTelegraph, Guardian Observer, National Express, and numerous other prestigious financial outlets.

Articles: 517

EUR/USD Seasonal Bias Despite Short-Term Dollar Strength: Could This Influence Buyers?

Historically, EUR/USD has shown a +20.11% annualized return from October 7 to October 20 over the past 15 years, with an 86.67% win rate during this period. This suggests that despite near-term dollar strength, there may be opportunities for euro buyers.

October 8, 2024

EUR/USD: Will NFP Data move the EURUSD more than 1%?

The EUR/USD is in focus as the market awaits the upcoming Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report and its potential impact on Fed policy. Seasonal data indicates that the EUR/USD has an average annualized return of +3.04% in the 10-day period surrounding U.S.

October 3, 2024

Oil Slips as Seasonality and Market Forces Weigh Heavily

WTI Crude Oil entered the fourth quarter on a bearish note, sliding lower despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This comes amidst broader market concerns, as OPEC+ is expected to increase output while China’s economic slowdown looms.

October 2, 2024

China’s Latest Stimulus Measures and FXI ETF Seasonal Strength: An Opportunity for Investors?

China’s recent economic stimulus measures have created optimism in the market, providing a potential tailwind for the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), which is now entering a historically strong period. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) offers diversified exposure to the largest Chinese companies across sectors like financials, technology, and energy.

October 1, 2024

EUR/USD: Bullish Bias Amid Dovish Fed and Seasonal Strength, but Risks Linger

Following the recent dovish Federal Reserve meeting, where the Fed confirmed a 50bps rate cut and reduced the dot plot projections, the EUR/USD has maintained a strong buy bias. The Fed's outlook, which suggests continued dollar weakness, has been further reinforced.

September 26, 2024

China 50: Can China’s Real Estate Reforms Revive the Market?

China's housing market has been a significant drag on the economy for the past few years, with the country battling to revive a sluggish property sector. Recent reports suggest that China is weighing the removal of major home buying restrictions.

September 25, 2024

Nike’s Revival: Just buy it?

The stock jumped 7.3% in anticipation of a strategic reset aimed at revitalizing the brand. Alongside this leadership change, seasonal data for Nike points to a historically strong period between September 23 and December 22.

September 23, 2024

Will Crude Oil Recover After Seasonal Weakness and Short Squeeze?

Crude oil prices are facing significant pressure this quarter, driven by China’s economic slowdown and signs of ample supply. WTI crude oil has experienced a notable seasonal downtrend during the period from September 17 to November 30.

September 19, 2024

S&P 500: Stocks Gain Pre-Fed, Fall Post-Fed—How Deep Could the Decline Be if the Fed Signals a Slower Rate Path?

As we approach the next Federal Reserve meeting the seasonal data suggests a typical pattern where stocks tend to rally leading into the Fed’s second meeting day but often decline afterward. The S&P 500 has experienced losses during this specific…

September 17, 2024

Pound Weakness: What Happens When the Bank of England Cuts Rates?

The British pound is under pressure as traders brace for potential rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE). Historically, rate cuts have led to a significant decline in GBP The seasonal data supports this trend, showing an annualized return…

September 16, 2024