A sharp move lower in the GDP print should mean that the GBP falls on expectations of the Bank of England needing to move more quickly to interest rate cuts to support a struggling economy. Looking at Seasonax’s event feature you can see the sort of moves that can be expected in the event of a big miss. The largest drop was 1.88% in September 2024, when the UK GDP missed expectations.
WTI Crude Oil demonstrates a compelling seasonal pattern between December and early March, historically yielding an annualised return of +39.26% over the last 25 years. The average gain of +7.85% during this period, coupled with a 72% win rate, highlights the winter season as a favourable window for oil price appreciation.
Germany's business outlook worsened in November, with the Ifo index dropping to 85.7, lower than expected, due to political instability and concerns over potential US trade tariffs under a Trump re-election. The country faces a second consecutive year of contraction, compounded by weak industrial and automotive sectors. However, consumption remains a bright spot.
The US labor market shows signs of broader weakness, with October's non-farm payrolls missing expectations. A weaker NFP report could strengthen the case for a December Fed rate cut, potentially boosting EURUSD. Seasonax’s event feature helps traders set precise targets ahead of big data points like this.
Over the last 10 years the Nasdaq has returned an average of -0.90% over the first 2 days of December. The so called ‘turn on the month effect’ does tend to be positive for stocks, but the Nasdaq bucks this trend around the turn of December showing a 70% losing bias over the last 10 years.
Nvidia unveiled strong fiscal Q3 results, with a 94% revenue jump to $35.1 billion, driven by AI-fueled demand for its chips. However, its forecast for Q4 sales of $37.5 billion fell short of some Wall Street expectations. The launch of its new Blackwell chips has strained margins, though production is ramping up to meet high demand.
With President Elect Trump expected to run inflationary policies that draw heavily on tariffs imposed on China and other countries the base expectation is for more USD strength. However, this narrative is a consensus view and if Donald Trump surprises everyone with a more conciliatory view to world trade that could result in a swift rise in the EURUSD pair.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition fractured after firing Finance Minister Christian Lindner, sparking an agreement for early German elections now set for February 23. Scholz will face a confidence vote on December 16, leading to the election if he loses.
Using Seasonax’s event feature shows us the impact of the EURUSD over the 5 German elections. Every one of them has resulted in further EUR downside.
Bitcoin surged past $82,000 for the first time last week making new highs, driven by President-elect Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance and the potential for a Congress with crypto-friendly lawmakers.
The shift in political landscape is expected to lead to more supportive regulation, boosting the crypto market. So, does this mean Bitcoin can enjoy a further rally into year end?
If CPI data on Wednesday comes in below market’s expectations markets may reprice rate cuts sooner, though a more definitive policy adjustment may be delayed if inflation proves resilient.
