- Instrument: BP plc
- Average Pattern Move: +5.57%
- Timeframe: March 15-May 20
- Winning Percentage: 76%
Market Analysis and Drivers
BP is navigating heightened activist pressure following Elliott Management’s involvement, calling for strategic rollbacks and cost-cutting initiatives to unlock shareholder value. Analysts note that despite previous missteps in the energy transition, BP remains a key player in the global oil and gas sector, with undervalued assets and a strong cash flow profile.Goldman Sachs estimates BP could sell off assets worth $26 billion as a strategy to reduce its debt burden if it so wished.
Seasonality adds to this perspective—historically, mid-March through May has been a strong period for BP’s stock, posting a +34.94% annualized return with a 76% win rate. This seasonal trend aligns with broader commodity price strength, potential corporate restructuring momentum, and increased shareholder-focused initiatives.
With energy prices still volatile, BP’s upcoming capital allocation decisions will play a critical role in whether it rides the seasonal wave higher or faces renewed selling pressure. Also, note that there is a weaker period ahead with an average loss of -2.47%. However, could this provide a dip buying opportunity?
Technical Perspective
From a technical standpoint there is a strong monthly support area around 400 which could be an attractive place for any dip buyers.
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Trade risks
While BP’s seasonal trend suggests a strong bullish bias, risks include oil price volatility, activist-driven uncertainty, FTSE-100 sensitivity, regulatory pressures, and potential deviations from historical patterns.
Don’t Just Trade It – Seasonax It!
