The latest PPI data this week out of the US was hot and the US CPI yesterday was mildly firmer than markets were expecting. However, recent more dovish Fed rhetoric has increased expectations of the Fed reaching peak rates.  

The news that China State Fund is buying bank shares is also supportive of the AUD. On top of this the latest cot report data shows dollar longs stretched and AUD shorts stretched. So, could a retracement about to be underway?  

Check out AUDUSD seasonals! Over the last 23 years the pair has risen 72% of the time for an average gain of 3.82%. So, will we see AUDUSD gains this year between now and November 07?  Usual Q4 gains? Will the seasonals play out regardless of the CPI print?  

Major Trade Risks: 
The major trade risk here is if the Fed keeps needing to hike rates.  

Remember don’t just trade it, Seasonax it!