Seasonal Insights

When Trump first took office, he made waves in sectors like defense, traditional energy, and financials; he favored industries that aligned with his pro-business, domestic-focused agenda. Now, with Trump 2.0 in the White House, we’re diving into a potential golden age for "presidential stocks"—companies primed to rise with policy shifts that could drive the market.

Legend has it that the Halloween Effect originated in the City of London in the late 16th century and has been passed from trader to trader ever since. The stock market performance improves dramatically after October 31st, with the strongest returns seen between November and April. 

You probably know the saying: “Sell in May and go away!” There is a lot of truth in this classic. Over the last 64 years, an investment in the Dow Jones achieved an average return of 6.60% in the winter half of the year, but only 0.09% in the summer half of the year from May - so practically nothing.

One of the primary implications of a Triple Witching Day is the surge in trading volume and market volatility. Traders and institutional investors scramble to offset, close, or roll over their positions.

At the beginning of August, the stock markets suffered a collapse. In fact, August is a seasonally weak month – since 1970 it has been the second weakest in the annual cycle. But there is an even weaker month: September.

Article in German The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, on 17-18 September 2024, is a hotly anticipated date in the financial world. Many experts anticipate the Fed will hold rates steady at 5.25%-5.50%, waiting for inflation to cool…

Last month’s issue was titled "Volatility: The Calm Before the Storm?". It explained that volatility mostly increased seasonally in the period from mid-July. It also stated that the "purchase of volatility products" is possibly appropriate.

Article in German Volatility, the tendency of prices to fluctuate, is not just an academic construct – there are also products such as ETFs based on it. Volatility has recently been quite low by historical standards. Can we now expect…