Dive into daily market insights and trading opportunities in equity, forex, and commodity markets with our esteemed analyst Giles Coghlan. His cutting-edge analysis has been featured in Reuters, Business Insider, WSJ, Financial Times Adviser, NBC, LBC Radio, CoinTelegraph, Guardian Observer, National Express, and numerous other prestigious financial outlets.
The USD/MXN currency pair typically strengthens between April 16 and April 27, showing gains in 73.33% of the past 15 years. This 10-day window has delivered an average move of +0.83% and an impressive annualised return of over 31%. With macro drivers such as geopolitical risks and tariff concerns rising, historical patterns may align with current sentiment. A strong technical support zone near 20.00 adds further clarity for trade setups.
HSBC Holdings has come under pressure amid renewed US-China trade tensions, but history offers a compelling reason for optimism. Over the past 15 years, the bank’s shares have shown a strong seasonal pattern between April 14 and June 7, delivering average returns of +2.29%. If global trade sentiment shifts or Chinese stimulus emerges, HSBC’s Asia exposure could turn from liability to advantage. Investors may want to take note before the window closes.
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) has demonstrated a consistent tendency to rally from early April to mid-May. Over the past 20 years, the stock has gained in 80% of cases during this period, delivering an average return of +2.45%. With the stock in a technical uptrend and defensive sectors gaining favor, this seasonal pattern may offer a compelling edge.
The USD/JPY pair has shown a seasonal tendency to weaken on days when US CPI is released, especially after soft inflation surprises. A historical average return of -0.14% on CPI day reflects the market’s sensitivity to disinflation. With the next release set for April 10, traders are watching closely. A lower-than-expected print could reinforce bets on Fed rate cuts and push the yen higher.
GBP/USD has historically rallied between April 7 and May 8, with a 70% success rate and an average gain of +0.88%. This seasonal strength often aligns with periods of USD softness. With current macro conditions turning against the dollar, the setup for renewed Sterling gains looks strong.
April has historically been a weak month for USD/CAD, with an average decline of -1.31% and gains in only 31.58% of cases. This seasonal trend could align with upcoming US tariff announcements, which may create volatility in the pair. If tariffs avoid major disruption to Canada and oil prices rise, CAD could strengthen further. However, strong US economic data or harsher-than-expected tariffs could challenge this pattern.
Did you know that the FTSE 100 has one of the strongest April patterns among global indices? With an average gain of +1.90% and a 72% win rate over the past 25 years, April has proven to be a key month for UK equities. Institutional inflows, tax-related investments, and dividend reinvestment all contribute to this seasonal strength. Explore the data behind this trend and see how you can leverage it in your strategy.
Gold has a habit of posting strong short term gains at the beginning of April. Over the past 15 years, it has averaged a +1.92% gain from April 1 to 11 with a 73.33% win rate. With central banks accumulating gold, inflation risks lingering, and global tensions rising, is another rally on the horizon?
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s push to cap 10-year yields aligns with a historically weak summer period for bonds. Over the past 19 years, yields have fallen 16 times between June and September. With technical support at 4.15% and major banks revising their forecasts, is another leg lower coming?
BYD has entered a historically strong period, with a 70% win rate from late March to mid-April. The company’s global EV expansion and increasing investor confidence continue to drive momentum. Seasonal trends suggest this could be a key time for BYD’s stock, especially as it strengthens its position in emerging markets. With geopolitical shifts and growing EV demand, this season could prove pivotal for the stock’s performance.
