Dive into daily market insights and trading opportunities in equity, forex, and commodity markets with our esteemed analyst Giles Coghlan. His cutting-edge analysis has been featured in Reuters, Business Insider, WSJ, Financial Times Adviser, NBC, LBC Radio, CoinTelegraph, Guardian Observer, National Express, and numerous other prestigious financial outlets.
The upcoming UK CPI report is critical for shaping expectations around the BoE’s monetary policy. With services inflation at 5% y/y in November, well above the 2% target, the report’s outcome could significantly impact GBPUSD. A softer-than-expected print may pressure GBP, with past CPI events showing falls of up to -1.97%. Traders should watch the 1.2100 support level and consider historical patterns to refine their strategies.
USD/JPY shows a strong seasonal pattern for gains between January 6 and April 6, with a 65% win rate and an average return of +1.56% over the last 20 years. As yen weakness continues and global yields rise, will the pair's historical strength prevail in Q1 2025?
United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) plans to deploy SpaceX's Starlink for inflight Wi-Fi, targeting its regional jets in spring and aiming for a broader rollout by 2025. Historical patterns show UAL shares have risen by an average of +9.90% from January 3 to February 16 over the past six years, with a 100% success rate. Will Starlink's cutting-edge technology and strategic integration bolster United's share price and passenger satisfaction?
Discover the Santa Rally in the S&P 500: A seasonal trend from December 20 to December 27 with an average gain of 1.01% and an 86.67% win rate over the past 15 years. Explore the psychological, technical, and market dynamics driving this festive phenomenon.
Can Barratt Developments and Persimmon Plc capitalize on Labour’s housing reforms and seasonal trends? With seasonal returns exceeding 6% for both housebuilders in December-February, the alignment of policy and performance creates a unique opportunity for investors.
The Nasdaq, dominated by rate-sensitive tech stocks, faces unique challenges around Federal Reserve meetings. Historical data shows a tendency for negative returns, with an annualized return of -40.94% on Fed announcement days. While rate cuts provide some relief, they don’t always guarantee sustained gains.
EasyJet’s announcement to double its dividend follows a record-breaking summer and booming holiday demand. Historically, the airline has shown strong seasonal performance between December and February, with an 80% win rate and an average return of +9.23%. Will this winter align with past trends and support its dividend strategy?
A sharp move lower in the GDP print should mean that the GBP falls on expectations of the Bank of England needing to move more quickly to interest rate cuts to support a struggling economy. Looking at Seasonax’s event feature you can see the sort of moves that can be expected in the event of a big miss. The largest drop was 1.88% in September 2024, when the UK GDP missed expectations.
WTI Crude Oil demonstrates a compelling seasonal pattern between December and early March, historically yielding an annualised return of +39.26% over the last 25 years. The average gain of +7.85% during this period, coupled with a 72% win rate, highlights the winter season as a favourable window for oil price appreciation.
Germany's business outlook worsened in November, with the Ifo index dropping to 85.7, lower than expected, due to political instability and concerns over potential US trade tariffs under a Trump re-election. The country faces a second consecutive year of contraction, compounded by weak industrial and automotive sectors. However, consumption remains a bright spot.
