Trading Ideas

The Federal Reserve is on the brink of initiating a rate-cutting cycle, with short-term interest rate (STIR) markets pricing in four full rate cuts by year-end. For this to unfold, one of the remaining three Fed meetings must deliver a…

Currency strategists are increasingly bullish on the Japanese yen following the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate hike in July and the Federal Reserve's signal of upcoming rate cuts. Previously, many experts expected the yen to weaken further after a significant decline in the first half of the year.

The S&P 500 tends to underperform in September, showing negative returns and higher risk metrics. It tends to be a weak month for returns and over the last 10 years it has been the weakest month. The selected pattern (1st September to 30th September) shows a significant negative annualized return of -23.24%.In contrast

Will the S&P500 run up higher into the NFP jobs print on Friday? From a seasonal perspective this is the pattern. Using Seasonax’s risk event feature we can see the following. The strategy shows a strong +48.89% annualized return with…

The weakest month of the year for the FTSE 100 is September. From 1 September - 30 September, over the last 25 years the pattern shows a significant negative annualized return of -19.8%. Despite the negative trend, there is still a 48% win rate, indicating nearly half of the September months recorded gains.

As we approach Nvidia Corp.'s highly anticipated earnings report (Wednesday Aug 28), market watchers are bracing for another standout performance. The consensus among analysts points to a significant beat, with expectations running so high that it is thought Nvidia may raise its profit outlook.

The seasonal chart for the EURUSD is painting a picture of EURUSD downside ahead, with some outsized falls seasonally recorded in the pair. Over the last 24 years the pair has had falls over 3% three times. The largest fall…

The seasonal chart for gold, covering a 15-year period from August 2009 to August 2024, highlights a notable pattern of weakness in gold from early September to early October. This period historically correlates with a downturn, with a marked annualised return of -30.42% during this window.

Tencent is riding high following the blockbuster release of Black Myth: Wukong, a game that has taken the global gaming community by storm. As investor enthusiasm grows, Tencent is also entering one of its strongest seasonal periods.

The "first day of the month" effect in the S&P 500 refers to the observed tendency for stock returns to be higher on the first trading day of the month compared to other days. This phenomenon has been seen in various financial markets and is of particular interest to traders.