The “turn-of-the-month effect” is one of the most fascinating stock market phenomena.
It describes the fact that price gains primarily tend to occur around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically less profitable for investors.
The effect has been examined extensively in the US market. In the last issue of Seasonal Insights we have shown the extent of the “turn-of-the-month effect” in the eleven largest international stock markets.
The result was that overseas markets also tend to be significantly stronger around the turn of the month than around the middle of the month – in all the countries under review the effect was even more pronounced than in the US!
The turn-of-the-month pattern in 11 countries
The following charts show the cumulative returns achieved over time in all eleven countries around the turn of the month (blue lines) and around the middle of the month (red lines).
We have measured the average return of investing in these indexes in the time period from the 26th of each month to the 5th of the subsequent month, i.e., over a period of slightly less than two weeks around the turn of the month. Then we compared this return with that achieved by investing during the rest of the time around the middle of the month, i.e., from the 6th to the 25th of each month.
Canada: Cumulative return around the turn of the month (blue line) and over the rest of the time (red line), indexed (100)
The returns of turn-of-the-month period clearly beat those achieved around the middle of the month!
Source: Seasonax
China: Cumulative return around the turn of the month (blue line) and over the rest of the time (red line), indexed (100)
The mid-month period only scores in bull markets
Source: Seasonax
France: Cumulative return around the turn of the month (blue line) and over the rest of the time (red line), indexed (100)
The mid-month period sags.
Source: Seasonax
Germany: Cumulative return around the turn of the month (blue line) and over the rest of the time (red line), indexed (100)
The mid-month period is barely visible on the chart.
Source: Seasonax
Hong Kong: Cumulative return around the turn of the month (blue line) and over the rest of the time (red line), indexed (100)
The mid-month period outperformed only temporarily.
Source: Seasonax
India: Cumulative return around the turn of the month (blue line) and over the rest of the time (red line), indexed (100)
The turn-of-the-month period has been leading for years.
Source: Seasonax
Japan: Cumulative return around the turn of the month (blue line) and over the rest of the time (red line), indexed (100)
In Japan the market’s turn-of-the-month performance is noticeably stronger as well.
Source: Seasonax
Korea: Cumulative return around the turn of the month (blue line) and over the rest of the time (red line), indexed (100)
It seems the mid-month period is trying to hide (it is probably ashamed).
Source: Seasonax
Taiwan: Cumulative return around the turn of the month (blue line) and over the rest of the time (red line), indexed (100)
In Taiwan’s stock market the turn-of-the-month period also beats the mid-month period hands-down.
Source: Seasonax
Great Britain: Cumulative return around the turn of the month (blue line) and over the rest of the time (red line), indexed (100)
The turn-of-the-month period outperforms steadily.
Source: Seasonax
US: Cumulative return around the turn of the month (blue line) and over the rest of the time (red line), indexed (100)
Funny enough, of all markets the US market exhibits the smallest difference between the returns achieved in the two time periods
Source: Seasonax
As you can see, stock market investments generate significantly larger gains around the turn-of-the-month than around the middle of the month all over the world. Clearly this is a globally relevant phenomenon.
The “turn-of-the-month effect” is even more pronounced in overseas markets than in the US
Below we once again show you a table detailing the returns of the turn-of-the-month period compared to those achieved in the mid-month period in the eleven countries under review.
“Turn-of-the-month effect” in selected countries
The turn-of-the-month period clearly outperformed the mid-month period in all eleven countries.
Source: Seasonax
The column designated “Diff” shows the excess return of the turn-of-the-month period over the mid-month period. As a glance at this column immediately makes clear, the gains achieved by investing in the turn-of-the-month period are beating those of the mid-month period in all eleven countries, in most cases by quite a significant amount! These excess returns are achieved despite the fact that the time period during which the “turn-of-the-month effect” occurs is actually slightly shorter.
As the table illustrates, the strength exhibited by the stock market around the turn of the month is a global phenomenon. This is a very simple pattern. There exist a great many more seasonal patterns, which can be identified with the Seasonax app on Bloomberg and/or Thomson Reuters. Many of these patterns are still completely unknown – and potentially offer even more substantial outperformance.
