The earning season will soon deliver some pleasant surprises!
As a shareholder you probably wonder what the dividends on your shares will be from quarter to quarter. Now, with help of seasonality, you are able to come closer to your estimations. Let’s look at one of the most favored technology stock:
Intel, 2006 to 2016
Intel has had strong growth for years. Source: Stockcharts
Intel usually grows in April
The following seasonal chart shows you the seasonal development of Intel shares by using the average returns from the last fifteen years. The horizontal axis shows the time of year, while the vertical shows the index level. Thereby you see that Intel usually grows in April.
Intel, seasonal development, determined over fifteen years
Intel normally grows during the April reporting season. Source: Seasonax
The strong period between April 8th and May 2nd is highlighted dark blue. During these three weeks the average profit was 7.06 per cent, a high value in such a short period. This corresponds to an annually-calculated profit of a +181.47 per cent. Behind this are the figures from the first quarter which are published in mid-April and are often a pleasant surprise for analysts.
In twelve years out of fifteen, Intel grew during this period
In twelve years out of fifteen, Intel grew during this period. In the twelve profitable years, profits during this period averaged out at 10.17 per cent, whilst in loss-making years loss was at 4.56 per cent.
The bat chart next shows the return on Intel shares between April 8th and March 2nd for every year since 2001. Profit-making years are given in green, loss-making years are in red.
Intel, percentage return between 8/04 and 2/05 in individual years since 2001
In twelve of the fifteen years there was a profit of up to 37.67 per cent! Source: Seasonax
During the period, Intel grew by 37.67 per cent. In contrast, losses were relatively small and rare. Intel, however, is just one example of shares for which profit levels in the first quarter are usually positive and grow in April as a result. Other examples include Align Technology, McKesson, and many more.
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