Today is the Federal Reserve’s hotly anticipated interest rate meeting. Expectations in short-term interest rate markets are for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates four times next year.  Now this seems a very dovish expectation.

The seasonals over this period favour S&P 500 selling. Just look at the bias for heavier post S&P500 selling and some of the maximum falls. Don’t forget that tomorrow we will also have the dot lot from the Fed. If they show, via the dot plot, that they are expecting higher rates for longer then watch for heavy S&P500 selling in line with the risk event feature highlighted by Seasonax

The major trade risk here is is if the Federal Reserve affirm short term interest rate market pricing and/or signal a coming rate cut.

Remember, don’t just trade it Seasonax It!