Will the S&P500 run up higher into the NFP jobs print on Friday? From a seasonal perspective this is the pattern. Using Seasonax’s risk event feature we can see the following. The strategy shows a strong +48.89% annualized return with a 71.67% win rate, yielding an average profit of +0.79% per trade. Over 60 trades, the total profit is +1,726 points, with gains averaging +1.79% and losses at -1.69%. Risk-adjusted metrics are solid, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.45 and Sortino ratio of 4.62. The pattern generally performs well in the 5 days before the US jobs release.

So, with Powell, at the Jackson Hole Symposium, now saying that the labour market is ‘cooling unmistakably’ and that the Fed ‘ do not welcome further labour market cooling’ can we see further gains this week in the S&P500.

Technically, the S&P500 is holding a major trend line from October 2023 (marked below) and this could be a great spot for buyers to lean against

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Trade risks
Seasonal patterns do not always repeat themselves each year and market dynamics can quickly shift, in particular S&P500 upside will be limited if markets start to fear fewer US rate cuts if the labour market is strong.

Remember, don’t just trade it Seasonax It!