The USD/MXN currency pair typically strengthens between April 16 and April 27, showing gains in 73.33% of the past 15 years. This 10-day window has delivered an average move of +0.83% and an impressive annualised return of over 31%. With macro drivers such as geopolitical risks and tariff concerns rising, historical patterns may align with current sentiment. A strong technical support zone near 20.00 adds further clarity for trade setups.
The USD/JPY pair has shown a seasonal tendency to weaken on days when US CPI is released, especially after soft inflation surprises. A historical average return of -0.14% on CPI day reflects the market’s sensitivity to disinflation. With the next release set for April 10, traders are watching closely. A lower-than-expected print could reinforce bets on Fed rate cuts and push the yen higher.
GBP/USD has historically rallied between April 7 and May 8, with a 70% success rate and an average gain of +0.88%. This seasonal strength often aligns with periods of USD softness. With current macro conditions turning against the dollar, the setup for renewed Sterling gains looks strong.
April has historically been a weak month for USD/CAD, with an average decline of -1.31% and gains in only 31.58% of cases. This seasonal trend could align with upcoming US tariff announcements, which may create volatility in the pair. If tariffs avoid major disruption to Canada and oil prices rise, CAD could strengthen further. However, strong US economic data or harsher-than-expected tariffs could challenge this pattern.
With UK inflation proving stickier than expected, the Bank of England remains hesitant to turn dovish. As the next CPI release nears, EUR/GBP has historically shown a tendency to decline, with GBP maintaining strength. This trend suggests that a higher-than-expected CPI could lead to continued GBP outperformance in the coming days.
The upcoming Fed meeting could weigh on USD/JPY, with historical data showing a bearish bias post-FOMC decisions. An average decline of -0.07% and a 48.75% win rate suggest downside risks, especially if the Fed signals more rate cuts. A dovish stance may push USD/JPY lower, while a hawkish surprise could provide support. Key technical levels, like the 147.50 support zone, will be crucial for traders.
EUR/USD has a strong seasonal track record from March 10 to March 17, with gains 75% of the time with an annualized return of +32.26%. Yield spreads and fiscal policies could further support the euro’s strength, while technical signals point to a potential breakout. However, key risks such as US inflation data and Fed policy shifts could introduce volatility.
Bitcoin’s seasonal pattern reveals potential risks. With the detrending feature in Seasonax, you can easily identify when Bitcoin is likely to experience declines, helping you minimize risks and optimize your investments.
The New Zealand dollar historically weakens against the US dollar from late February to mid-May, averaging a -2.21% move. With RBNZ's rate cuts and potential US tariffs fueling USD strength, NZD/USD could see further downside.
Historical trends suggest that EUR/USD tends to strengthen between February 12 and March 17, posting an average return of +0.70% with a 75% win rate. As the Federal Reserve and ECB navigate economic uncertainty, traders are watching for key macro catalysts.
