Dow Jones

“Sell in May”: Myth or Real Market Mover?

The legend says that the phrase originally came from an old English saying: "Sell in May and go away, and come back on St. Leger's Day." This advice was linked to British aristocrats who used to leave the hot city of London during the summer and return after the St. Leger's Stakes horse race in September. What began as a lifestyle choice for the wealthy has turned into a financial strategy observed in stock markets globally.

April 30, 2024
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4-Year Election Cycle: How will 2024 go?

The turn of the year, 2023 into 2024, is just around the corner. As an investor, you may well be wondering what the new year will be like. In terms of politics, the US presidential elections are approaching. Although the new - or old - president will not be inaugurated until 2025, elections also influence share prices in their run up. This election cycle is in fact known as the four-year cycle.

December 13, 2023
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Year-End Stock Market Rally: Myth or Reality?

As the end of the calendar year approaches, whispers of a stock market rally begin to circulate among investors and financial analysts. But is this so-called "year-end rally" a mere myth?

November 28, 2023
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Is Volatility About to Breakout?

Currently, implied volatility, as calculated from option prices on the US stock market, is relatively low. The Bank of America recently found that there has not been a cheaper time to hedge over a twelve-month period since 2008. This raises these questions for you as an investor: has a phase of permanently low volatility now been reached? Or is the current low volatility merely the calm before the storm?

August 29, 2023
Dow Jones Indices

How do Stocks Perform in the Second Half of the Pre-Election Year?

Along with annual seasonality, the four-year cycle is one of the most important cycles on the U.S. stock market. This cycle is also called the election cycle because it is related to the election of the U.S. president.

August 1, 2023
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US Election Cycle: Mid-Term Election Years Tend to be Weak From Now On!

Article in German Dear Investor, As you know, Joe Biden was elected as the President of the United States in 2020. However, did you know that there is a typical four-year cycle that follows elections? The course of the stock…

April 24, 2022
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2022: The Most Difficult Year in The 4-Year Cycle Has Begun.

Article in German Dear Investor, At the turn of the year 2021/22, you as an investor may be thinking about all kinds of things that can influence prices, but not about the US presidential election. After all, it took place…

February 21, 2022
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October is here: are sharp declines now looming?

Article in German Dear Investor, Problems surrounding Evergrande, the Chinese property development company, are causing unrest in the stock markets. On top of this, October has also begun – the month that has a particularly bad reputation for traders! Is…

November 30, 2021
Dow Jones Indices

Halloween Effect: How Risky is it really to Invest in Stocks from May Onward?

Article in German Dear Investor, Perhaps you are wondering whether strong returns can be generated with the help of seasonality. It is after all a fairly simple method – at least at first glance. Thousands of analysts and computer programs…

July 14, 2021
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The Dow Jones 10-year Cycle

Article in German Dear Investor, Annual seasonality is undoubtedly the most important cycle for you as an investor. But there are also cycles with different durations. In the 30 December 2020 issue of Seasonal Insights I e.g. discussed the 4-year…

April 7, 2021
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