EUR/USD has a strong seasonal track record from March 10 to March 17, with gains 75% of the time with an annualized return of +32.26%. Yield spreads and fiscal policies could further support the euro’s strength, while technical signals point to a potential breakout. However, key risks such as US inflation data and Fed policy shifts could introduce volatility.
Historical trends suggest that EUR/USD tends to strengthen between February 12 and March 17, posting an average return of +0.70% with a 75% win rate. As the Federal Reserve and ECB navigate economic uncertainty, traders are watching for key macro catalysts.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition fractured after firing Finance Minister Christian Lindner, sparking an agreement for early German elections now set for February 23. Scholz will face a confidence vote on December 16, leading to the election if he loses.
Using Seasonax’s event feature shows us the impact of the EURUSD over the 5 German elections. Every one of them has resulted in further EUR downside.
