The Bank of Japan's policy meeting on January 23-24, 2025, is set to shape the USD/JPY outlook. With an 80% probability of a rate hike from 0.25% to 0.5%, historical patterns suggest a +0.53% average move in USD/JPY on the day of the decision, with a 75% winning rate.
Early Friday morning the BoJ meet and speculation is rising on whether they will start to signal the end of negative interest rates. A weak yen is creating problems for the domestic markets and raising interest rates would be a quick way to strengthen the Yen.
On Thursday, the Bank of England meet and are still expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points to tackle surging UK inflation.
Recent economic data from the UK has fuelled speculation that the Bank of England is starting to consider pausing interest rates hikes in the UK. Furthermore, some recent speeches from MPC members, have added fuel to this speculation. BoE’s Governor…
Heading into the ECB rate meeting on Thursday this week a Reuters poll from last week shows 39 out of 69 economists surveyed are expecting the European Central bank to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%. However 30 at the economists…
The Reserve Bank of Australia have moved into a wait-and-see mode before deciding on whether they need to hike interest rates further. At the latest central bank meeting they kept rates unchanged at 4.10% indicating that the July monthly CPI…
There is a very interesting seasonal pattern approaching in the GBPJPY pair. Recent gains in the pound are starting to look stretched. The Bank of England has been hiking interest rates to deal with rising inflation and that’s resulted in…
Recent UK data has shown signs of a sharp slowdown. On August 18 UK retail sales came in below market’s minimum expectations and so did the UK PMI reading on August 23. With GBP longs showing an extreme long position…
The JPY is once again in focus this week as Japanese inflation data is released early Friday am. So, with Governor Ueda disappointing JPY bulls this week by saying that the BoJ were still some away from sustainably achieving the…
Mark your calendars for Wednesday, July 19! At 07:00 UK time, the much-awaited UK inflation data will be revealed. Anticipations suggest that the headline figure will drop to 8.2% y/y from the previous 8.7%. However, the core reading is expected…
