Will EURGBP move higher as the BoE meet?
The Bank of England meet on Thursday at 1200GMT and expectations are 1000% for a 25 bps hie and over 80% from STIR markets for a 50 bps rate hike. In their June meeting the Bank of England hiked rates…
Forex
Fed to send the USDJPY lower tonight?
The JPY tends to strengthen around the summer and you can see that bias play out in the USDJPY pair. Over the last 22 years the USDJPY has fallen 14 times between July 27 and August 27. The average fall…
Are there further EURJPY falls ahead?
The euro has seen further weakness so far this week as growing fears emerge over a slowing global economy, Stagflation, growth, and inflation fears all combined to send the USD higher and that weakens the EURUSD. Furthermore, the last PMI…
EURAUD selling ahead?
The EUR has reasons for weakness after the last batch of PMI data points released on the 23rd of June. The German June PMI flash readings came in below the market’s minimum expectations as did the Eurozone’s composite and services…
The seasonal weakness for USDJPY
The BoJ has been expected to end their yield curve control for some time now as one of the only central banks to still maintain a very loose monetary policy. The SNB acted last week and surprised both Short Term…
Will the Fed sink the USDJPY?
Expectations are for the Fed to hike by 50bps at their meeting next week and then to signal another 50 bps hike. Jerome Powell has said that the neutral rates (at 2.4%) is the right level for rates by year…
Is now the time to buy EURGBP?
The ECB are due to meet this week on Thursday and the pressure is on the ECB to hike rates. Inflation data last week showed a headline print of 8.1% y/y over the 7.6% y/y expected which was at the…
Seasonally CAD/JPY does well
The Canadian dollar has been benefitting from the surge higher in commodities, especially oil. Lack of investment in oil longer term, shrewd management during lockdowns of oil production levels from OPEC+, and supply shocks from Russia’s move into Ukraine has…
USD/JPY weakness!
The USDJPY pair shows seasonal weakness between now and August with an average fall of -1.36%. The USD has found significant buying since the start of the year due to expectations that the Fed will rapidly hike interest rates in…
Forex Seasonality: The US Dollar Drop at The End of The Year
Article in German In the context of seasonality, you may – just like most investors – primarily think of commodities and stock indexes. However, there are seasonal patterns in many other markets and instruments as well, ranging from individual stocks…