Gold bull market: Buy mines now?
Gold has gained 50% in two years, but Newmont Mining has lagged behind. Seasonality shows its strongest phase is from November 27th to April 11th, with an average gain of 24.04%. Could now be the time to catch up?
Gold
Gold Performance Over the Year and the Month
Around 50% of current gold production flows into jewelry production. This has a considerable influence on the price of gold. The Indian wedding season in autumn, the Christmas season and the Chinese New Year increase the demand for gold for jewelry production, with purchases by jewelers taking place in the run-up to the respective festivities.
Will The Fed Send Gold Soaring?
Gold serves as a renowned inflation hedge due to its intrinsic properties and historical performance during periods of rising prices. Gold operates as an inflation hedge as gold possesses inherent value that transcends currencies and economic fluctuations.
Will US CPI Print Send Gold 3% Higher?
Over the last 5 years gold has risen into and out of US CPI prints 60% of the time for an average 0.28% gain. Interestingly, the largest gain on a US CPI print in gold has been 3.11%. So, if we see a big miss in the US CPI print with the CPI MM 0.10% or lower, the Core CPI MM 0.10% or lower, the headline 3% or lower, and the CORE CPI 3.7% or lower then watch out for gold gains!
Greenlight For Gold?
Has the Fed just given the green light for gold to gain into the start of 2024? With a dovish dot plot forecasting 3 Fed rate cuts next year bonds were heavily bought last night and the USD was convincingly sold.
Will The US Jobs Print On Friday Send Gold Soaring?
If you notice you can see that the seasonal pattern becomes very strong after the middle of December. That is not for no reason. The middle of December marks the last Fed meeting, so investors are often confident to take their gold position once the path for US yields and the USD is more predictable with the Fed having finished their last interest rate meeting for the year.
Seasonals Say Gold Is To Break All Time Highs!
The seasonals are saying that gold could be about to break its all-time high. The average return in gold between the 13th of December and February the 20th is over 4%. If the seasonal pattern repeats this year, according to its average, that will take gold to fresh all time new highs!
Going For Gold?
When the US dollar falls and real yields drop too, that tends to be a great environment for gold buying. The last few weeks have seen significant falls in the dollar on expectations that the Federal Reserve has reached the peak in interest rates.
Gold at USD 2,000: What’s next?
As you may have noticed, the price of gold recently touched the psychologically important round mark of USD 2,000 per troy ounce, before coming back down again.
Gold gains into the US CPI?
US CPI is expected to pull back to 3.6% from August’s print of 3.7% and the core is expected to fall for the sixth month in a row down to 4.1% from the prior reading of 4.3%. This should keep yields and the USD mildly pressured.