Can a hawkish Fed send gold down to $1900?
On Wednesday the Federal Reserve meet and STIR markets currently see around a 1 in 4 chance that they will hike by 25bps. A key part of the Fed meeting will be their messaging. Will they, like the BoC and…
Gold
Gold dips still worth buying?
Gold has been pressured recently on USD gains, and rising real yields. This has resulted in gold pulling back recently from recent highs and moving back towards key daily support levels. Many analysts are expecting the case to remain…
Gold to rise into the US CPI print?
On Wednesday May 10 we have US inflation data out and the market is at an interesting point right now. The USD has been weakening after the Federal Reserve meeting this week on expectations that the Fed has finished their…
Do event studies show gold primed for a breakout?
So, the Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected on Wednesday and also signalled a rate pause with a meeting by meeting basis on the future path of hikes. In the announcement accompanying the hike the central bank removed language…
How Does Gold Perform Around the Turn of the Month?
The "turn of the month" effect has frequently been studied in relation to the U.S. stock markets. It shows that stocks tend to rise more around the turn of the month than around the middle of the month.
Go for Gold?
The outlook for gold has been improving since the US10Y bond yield appeared to cap out around the 4.35% region at the end of October last year. The USD also gave up its September high high too last year adding…
Long & wrong on gold?
The latest move by the Federal Reserve has affirmed that tackling inflation is the number one priority of the Federal Reserve, even if it means bringing the US into what’s called a ‘hard’ landing. A hard landing is when growth…
Seasonal trade of gold for the last month – review
Last month I took a long on gold based on its strong seasonal pattern in my trading community. See how I managed it here in line with the Fed’s so called dovish pivot at the last FOMC meeting and the…
Will gold prices lift higher after the Jackson Hole symposium?
At the last Jackson Hole Symposium Jerome Powell expected inflation to be transitory. He also told participants that he saw little evidence of wage increases at the time that might threaten excessive inflation. It is reasonable to expect Jerome Powell…
Do gold’s seasonals still favour dip buying?
The run higher in gold has been fuelled by the fall in real yields and the USD. These falls came after the last Fed meeting which saw the Fed move to a ‘meeting by meeting basis’ as the Fed recognised…