Article in German Dear Investor, As you can undoubtedly imagine, I am convinced of the validity of seasonal patterns. The fact that stocks, commodities or currencies exhibit seasonal trends is backed by exhaustive statistical studies. Moreover, there are sound fundamental…
Article in German Dear Investor, Global stock market returns during summer vs. winter periods Almost the entire return was generated in the winter months. The division into two time periods of equal length is merely a matter of convention though.…
Lieber Investor, “This is the greatest economy in the history of our country” meinte US-Präsident Donald Trump noch vor wenigen Monaten. Jetzt aber verdichten sich die Anzeichen für eine konjunkturelle Abschwächung. Daher nehmen die Spekulationen zu, die US-Notenbank FED würde…
Lieber Investor, als Aktionär fragen Sie sich von Quartal zu Quartal, wie der Gewinn ihrer Aktien ausfallen wird. Oftmals gleicht es einer Lotterie, ob die Erwartungen der Analysten übertroffen werden. Kein Lotteriespiel ist hingegen die saisonale Tendenz bei den Gewinnerwartungen.…
Article in German Dear Investor, As a shareholder you are probably asking yourself every quarter how the earnings of companies in your portfolio will turn out. Whether they will beat analyst expectations often seems akin to a lottery. However, what…
Dear Investor, Seasonality helps with stock selection Everybody has probably heard about the end-of-year rally phenomenon by now. It affects the majority of stocks during the same time period, namely in the final weeks of the year. However, many people…
Dear Investor, Having a glimpse at our previous articles, you might have noticed that seasonal market trends are not unique to a handful of companies, but are a widespread phenomenon that many markets accommodate, often unknowingly. Trading on a stock…
Article in German Dear Investor, Every year a certain stock market phenomenon is said to recur, anticipated with excitement by investors: the so-called Santa Claus rally. It is held that stock prices typically rise quite frequently and particularly strongly just…
Lieber Investor, alle Jahre wieder kommt es an den Börsen angeblich zu einem Phänomen, dass die Börsianerherzen höher schlagen lässt: zur Weihnachtsrallye. Demzufolge steigen die die Aktienkurse vor dem Jahreswechsel typischerweise besonders häufig und stark. Ich möchte Ihnen die Weihnachtsrallye…
Dear Investor, In this issue of our Seasonal Insights, we will use a hands-on example, German shoe manufacturer and lifestyle brand Puma, to illustrate the process of our seasonal analysis. We will show you how to profit from its strong…
