The big question heading into the Fed meeting is as follows:

Firstly, will the Fed push back against the recent STIR market pricing?

Secondly, if the Fed don’t do that will Powell flag a March rate cut?

Thirdly, will the prospect of rising real interest rates mean cuts are inevitable from the Fed?

With so many uncertainties ahead of the Fed meeting it can be very helpful to see the reaction of the S&P500 over the last 5 years out of Fed meetings! The bias for heavier selling is clearly there, so this can help frame expectations on a surprise hawkish decision. 

Check out the video below for more info!

The major trade risk here is that if the Fed signal aggressive rate cuts as this could send the S&P500 higher

Remember don’t just trade it, Seasonax it!