- Instrument: USD/CAD
- Average Pattern Move: -1.31%
- Timeframe: 1 Apr – 30 Apr
- Winning Percentage: 31.58%
Dear Investor,
You may not realise it, but the month of April has historically been a period of weakness for USD/CAD. With new US tariff announcements on the radar for April 2nd and a shifting global trade backdrop, this may present a compelling moment to revisit this pair. The question now is: will tariffs and seasonality align to drive USD/CAD lower again? We want to analyse the data in more detail.
USD/CAD and April: A Strong Seasonal Bias for Weakness
The chart below shows you the typical development of USD/CAD over the month of April based on the past 19 years of data. It reveals a clear downside tendency, with an annualised return of -15.33% and a negative average return of -1.31%. Only 31.58% of the years studied showed gains during this window, highlighting how persistently the pair has struggled during this period.
Looking at the cumulative profit curve, it’s evident that the trend has been consistent over time — a persistent decline in USD/CAD through the April stretch, with notable softness from the second week onward.
Fundamental Setup: Tariff Tensions and USD Headwinds
With the US administration set to unveil new tariff measures on April 2nd — targeting sectors ranging from electric vehicles to critical minerals — markets will be watching closely for how Canada, a key US trading partner, responds. Any perceived friction could stir volatility in USD/CAD.
However, for the pair to really move lower, two things need to happen:
- Tariff clarity: If the tariffs are perceived as globally disruptive but relatively soft on Canada, this could ironically bolster CAD by reducing uncertainty and supporting risk sentiment.
- Oil support: As a commodity-linked currency, the Canadian dollar tends to benefit from rising crude oil prices. With WTI entering a seasonally strong phase from late March through June, further oil gains could provide a tailwind to CAD.
Combine these factors with weaker US macro surprises and renewed rate cut expectations from the Fed, and the downside pressure on USD/CAD may build.
Technical Perspective
From a technical standpoint there is a major support level for the USDCAD at 1.4000 on the weekly chart marked below. If there is a drop lower in the USDCAD, that is an obvious point for a pause in the fall and a key target for potential sellers.
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Trade Risks
A key risk to this view is if the tariff measures are unexpectedly harsh on Canadian exports — especially autos or agriculture — which could weigh on the loonie. Also, any resurgence in US economic data or pushback from Fed officials on near-term rate cuts could underpin the dollar and stall the seasonal trend.
Don’t Just Trade It – Seasonax It!
